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Property Press Briefing
发布时间:2020-11-2 13:38:28 来源:

Sales commentary, not BofA research 

 

 

Headlines 

·         Friday: NKY +0.18%, HSI +0.47%, SHCOMP +2.07%, KOSPI +0.26%  

·         Dow -0.88%, SPX -1.12%, Nasdaq -1.07%  

·         SINO-US: Trump approved TikTok deal in theory but valn discussions ongoing

·         SINO-US: Bytedance seeking a $60b val for TikTok in US deal; Walmart + Oracle to take up to 20%

·         SINO-US: TikTok shutdown Nov12 if no deal

·         SINO-US: US download ban for Wechat & Tiktok put on hold / extended respectively by a judge (BBG)

·         SINO-US: Commerce department prohibits Wechat, Tiktok transactions

·         SINO-US: CN Commerce Ministry 'resolutely opposed' to US ban on Wechat/TikTok; Will take necessary measures to safeguard legitimate interests of CN co’s

·         CN: CSRC vows to curb illegal funding in stock investment

·         CN: Reveals punishment for firms on Unreliable Entity List; no timetable or pre-set names in the list

·         CN: Xi says economy remains resilient; ample policy tools at Beijing's disposal despite external risks

·         HK: Li Ka Shing bought back 600,000 CK Asset (1113) Sept 14-17

·         HK: HK existing home prices fall w/ CCL index dropping 0.61% to 176.76

·         HK: Ant Financial has received SSE approval for IPO

·         HK: Friday / Sat / Sun local cases:  2/4/4

·         HK: Evergrande buys site in New Territories from Henderson for HK$4.7b, to build400 villas (Mingtiandi)

·         SK: Confirms 70 more coronavirus cases

·         AU: ARA Asset Mgt has 28.53% of Cromwell, up from 26.68%

·         AU: Oaktree said to explore $2b sale of cold storage firm Agro - has presence in US, Eur, LATAM & Aust

·         JP: PAG will invest up to 840b (US$8b) in Japanese RE over nxt 4yrs. (Nikkei RE)

·         NZ: Ardern: NZ ex Auckland moves to level 1 tonight; Possibility Auckland goes to level 1 from Oct 7

 

Today:  What a big week last week.  So much great content from our Global Real Estate conference – if you missed it, you have just today & tomorrow still to watch all the replays (all the panels & 56 round tables available).  LMK if you need help getting in. & then RE deals on top of that.  This week – still digesting the conference.  HK continues to look encouraging on the virus front.  I was in Hysan place on Sunday & it was packed so I would stay long on retail names for now (the Asia names are lowly geared vs some other regions in the press the past week).  Fortune & Wharf REIC are the laggards.  In Japan I was most interested in this headline PAG will invest up to 840b (US$8b!!) in Japanese RE over nxt 4yrs. You know I think Invesco office w/ no controlling sponsor at 5.6% div yld & down 37% still ytd looks mispriced vs some other names (Nippon Building fund only down 22% ytd by comparison).  Good luck.  Sarah

 

Finally: The Spiralling Cost of California's Wildfires. By around this time last yr, 118 thousand acres had been burned by 4,927 wildfires in California. So far in 2020 this figure is 2.3m acres caused by 7,606 fires. The costs of wildfires in California have escalated significantly over the last 4 decades. Ave annual California Department of Forestry & Fire Protection expenditure for its fire suppression emergency fund from 79/80 to 88/89 was $25m, while from 09/10 to 18/19, the figure had risen to $401m. (Statista

 

Macro 

 

Interesting move LOWER in Real Estate shorts over past wk. Has the value rotation started?

Source: Markit

 

China 

 

Aug new RE (primarily housing) sales 1.6%YoY, val of new homes sold YTD ~Rmb9.7b. (Mingtiandi) 

Some devrs in Henan province say price disc do more harm than good; they won’t offer disc. (Paper) 

Evergrande acq’d a commercial & resi site in Shanghai Nrth Bund for Rmb2.3b or HK$51,000/m2. (Paper) 

Suning may exit Rmb20b invsmt in Evergrande to repay debt if Hengda RE fails to succeed in a domestic stock listing by Jan. (Time Wkly) 

China Jinmao to acquire 60% interest in 3 Qingdao projects for up to Rmb18m. (Co) 

Aoyuan Healthy to buy 55% stake in Zhejiang Liantianmei for Rmb691m, to hold 60% of tgt. (Co) 

New home sales volume rose 12% YoY in 17 major cities last week (CREIS) strong gwth in T1 (48%) but softening tread in T3 (11%) / T2 (1%) cities.

Country Garden (2007 HK): credit rating upgraded to investment grade Baa3by Moody’s (Sina) S&P still rates it sub IG

Evergrande Vehicle (708 HK) to issue RMB shares, list on the Sci-Tech Board of SH Exchange (Co)

Hong Kong/Macau  

HK unemployment rate steadies at 6.1% for Jun-Aug period. (Standard) 

Survey says 20% of HKs considering emigration (HK01) 45% of which hope to implement plan in 2yrs.

Strong local foot traffic at shopping malls this weekend (HKET)

SHKP submits modified plan to Town Planning Board for High Speed Train Terminal site (HKEJRetail GFA expand 90% to 600k sqf, office will shrink 286k sqf to 2.56mn sqf.  Office heights will ed 27% to 115m, but # of office towers from 3 to 2.

HK logistics prop sector overall vacancy rate may to 3% in 2020, vs 1.6% in 2019. (SCMP)

There were 230 new homes sold on Sat. (HKET)  

CCL Index -0.62%WoW, Mass Index -0.54%WoW, Small & Medium Index -0.55%WoW, & Large Index -0.99%WoW. (Centaline) 

Evergrande buys a site in New Territories from Henderson for HK$4.7b, to build 400 villas. (Mingtiandi) 

Kowloon Devt to distribute Polytec shrs as div, distribution represents 71% of Polytec’s sh capital & Kowloon Devt’s entire stake in the co.  Polytec will no longer be a subsidiary of Kowloon Devt. (Co) 

SHKP sold 130 out of 133 units in Wetland Seasons Park phase 3 on Sat, then launched 38 more units at HK$12,407 – 16,118/ft2 effective price. (HKET) 

Henderson Land sold 74 out of 80 units in Two.Artlane for HK$520m on Sat. (HKET) 

Li Ka Shing Foundation bought 600,000 CKA shrs @ avg HK$41.0488, HK$41.32 & HK$40.8775/sh on Sep 14, 16 & 17. Li Ka-shing’s stake to 35.56% from 35.54%, Victor Li’s to 35.62% from 35.61%. (HKEX) 

Singapore 

OUE C-REIT not in exclusivity arrangement over sale of assets. (BT) >>>  This is in response to an article published on Friday in The Biz Times titled "Will OUE Commercial Reit sell some of its assets?" 

Ascendas REIT to buy A$167m suburban Syd office in Macquarie Park from Frasers Prop Ind’l / Winten (Co)

Verdale sold 50% of the 78 launched units over w/e in a project jointly devped by COLI & CSC Land. (BT) 

Australia / New Zealand 

 

Lend Lease Intends to cut 15% (240pp) of British staff. Last mth (investor day) said revenue xpctd to double over time as they monetise +$100bn order book. UK key projects Int’l Qtr & Euston Station.

Australia unemployment rate unxpctdly to 6.8%, employment largely by part-time work. (BT) 

Cromwell Property suspends DRP in respect of Sep quarter distribution. (Co) 

Cromwell says Gary Weiss, Joseph Gersh elected to Board. ARA holds >27%; Tang family 16%. Tang Family supported ARA position contributing to Gary Weiss electioin on 3rd attempt & Joseph Gersh on 1st attempt, (Biz News Australia)

Ascendas REIT to buy A$167m suburban Syd office in Macquarie Park from Frasers Prop Ind’l / Winten. (Co)

Goodman Property Trust buys land to extend South Auckland Estate.  

Japan 

Bank of Japan keeps its aggressive monetary stimulus unchngd. (Japan Times) 

PAG will invest up to 840b (US$8b) in Japanese RE over nxt 4yrs. (Nikkei RE) 

Mitsui’s logistics REIT to acq 2 fully occupied logistics props for Y77.4b ($710m) in total. (Nikkei RE) 

Daiwa Office Investment Corporation chngs in organization & key employees. (Co) 

India 

Godrej Fund Mngt to raise $500m office fund from global investors by early nxt yr. (Mint) 

Indonesia 

Bank Indonesia holds interest rate at 4%. (Jakarta)

Philippines 

AREIT buys Teleperformance Cebu bldg from ALI. The Grade-A BPO devt has GLA 18,092m2. (MB)

PAGCOR data: of 55 licensed Pogos, only 29 had been issued authorization to resume operations by Sep 8

Thailand 

L&T Realty plans to launch 6.85mft2 office project in Chennai. (India Times) 

Vietnam  

City Garden JSC / Swire JV to devp "The River" luxury resi in HCMC: 3 resi twrs, total 525 luxury apts. (Co) 

Korea 

S K govt to invest KRW3.2trn for 15 smart green industrial complexes by 2025. (Korea Joongang Daily) 

Taiwan 

Taiwan's central bank maintains policy interest rate at 1.125%. (Taipei Times)

 

* My pa holdings: BAC US, 1 HK, 6 HK, ST SP, TEAM US, GOOGL US, AMZN US, 9988 HK

 

Sarah Cooper  

Managing Director

Global Head, Real Estate Equity Sales
BofA Securities
55/F Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong 

T 852.3508.4938 M 852.9301.1149
sarah2.cooper@bofa.com 

https://www.bofaml.com/en-us/content/baml-disclaimer.html 

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  Property Press Briefing 2020-11-2
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