Agile – Mild Sep, Strong Oct: We expect Agile to report flat presales in September, compared with Rmb3.3bn in August, given less new launches. The company expects presales in October to grow significantly thanks to three new launches in Hainan, Nanjing and Changzhou.
COLI – Good Sep and Oct: Given limited saleable resources, COLI saw significant decline in presales in August; however, according to its launch schedule, we expect its presales in September to achieve over Rmb8bn, representing >20% mom growth. October presales should stay solid.Sell through rate is about 70%.
COGO – in line with expectation：We expect COGO to report >Rmb1bn presales in September (vs. Rmb1.3bn in August). It launched Nanning project in Sep with Rmb200-300mn collected. We believe the company should have no problem to achieve our full year estimate of Rmb14.7bn.
Country Garden – strong presales to continue: We expect the company to report strong presales in September; however, given high base in August of Rmb11.9bn, we see a slight decline is also supportive to its share price. Our forecast of September presales is Rmb8bn – Rmb10bn.
Evergrande – at least Rmb10bn presales: We expect the company to report strong contract sales in September (vs. Rmb11.4bn in August).In addition, according to its pipeline, the company should receive Rmb10bn presales in October, and we believe the company can reach its full year target of Rmb100bn without difficulty. ASP will stay stable compared with that in August. The number of new launches in September and October is 10 and 9, respectively. We expect the net investment in football club to achieve >Rmb300mn in 2013.
Greentown – Flat Sep, Growing Oct: We expect Greentown to report Rmb4.5bn – Rmb5.5bn presales in September and >Rmb4bn presales in October (vs. Rmb4.4bn in August). ASP in September should be above Rmb21k/ sqm vs. YTD ASP of Rmb20,591/ sqm due to changes in product mix.
Longfor – Flat Sep: We expect Longfor to report flat growth in September presales (vs. Rmb4.5bn in August). The October presales are expected to be above Rmb5bn.
Powerlong – Strong Sep and Oct: We expect Powerlong to report Rmb800mn presales in Sep, and >Rmb1bn in October according to its schedule. It launched Chongqing, Penglai, Luoyang and Hangzhou project in September, and will launch Zhenjiang, Jinjiang, Shanghai and other projects in near term.